What do these COVID-19 trends mean?

~Vinaytosh Mishra 

The graph is increasing exponentially and still remains concave. It has not reached the point of inflection and a peak is a distant dream. Should we heave a sigh of relief or remain in despair?

There may be one of these scenarios:

Scenario1 : The proportion of the tested +ve (PTP) has decreased while the number of testing has increased .

Scenario 2: The proportion of the tested +ve(PTP) has remained same while the number of testing has increased.

Scenario 3: The proportion of tested +ve (PTP)has increased and the number of testing has also increased.

The tests are only being done on the basis of factors such as risk exposure and contact tracing. The increased testing implies that we may test more lavishly and may expect lower proportion of positive cases..Thus, a pessimist may believe that the PTP has not decreased and scenario 1 may not hold true. . Some will claim that increased temperature has affected the virus and Scenario 1 is true.

Whatever may be your assumed scenario, one thing is certain,, the number of testing has certainly increased.However, lets not feel intimidated ! Taking Precautions and adopting safety measures is the need of the hour.

The Author is working as Assistant Professor at FORE School of Management , New Delhi. His research interest includes Service Operations, Healthcare Management ,Health Policy , and Digital Health.

COVID-19: A Blessing in Disguise for the Healthcare System?

COVID-19 has been a blessing in disguise in several ways. The outbreak of the pandemic has proven to be an eye-opener in many respects. Suddenly we observe the air quality index (AQI) improving significantly in various cities. Drastic reduction in the pollution levels in major rivers such as Ganga and Yamuna can also be observed. In addition to this, the pandemic has also made us realize that some of the perennial problems associated with healthcare, can be solved, provided, the right intention exists.

A significant portion of the medical bills for a patient admitted in an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) also includes charges imposed on the usage of critical medical equipment such as Ventilators, Infusion Pumps, and Monitors. The shortage of these types of equipment results in compromised and sub-optimal care.  Equipment such as ventilators is exorbitantly costly, and thus, the patients are indirectly made to pay for these facilities. This makes ICU care, out of reach for the teeming majority. To make situations worse, eighty percent of the healthcare expenditure in India is Out-of-Pocket (OOP), which drives a family into poverty in case of a serious healthcare event, requiring hospitalization.

India seriously needs jugaad innovation in healthcare to come up with affordable medical goods, without compromising the quality of care. One of the approaches may be to identify and remove the features which are rarely employed but play a significant role in increasing the cost of the development. One apt example being the successful employment of the Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) machine as an alternative to a ventilator for providing breathing assistance to patients infected with COVID-19. This machine is already available and is presently being utilized for treating patients suffering from obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Another approach could be the better utilization of the available ventilators, to support multiple patients at once, using Air Tube Splitters.

On similar lines, we can think about patient monitors as a combination of sensors and display devices. The modular nature of this device makes it convenient to use only those sensors which are required. The shared use of sensors will reduce the inventory of sensors, eventually reducing the lifetime cost of a patient monitor. The output of the different monitors can be displayed on a single screen. This will not only reduce the cost but also improve the monitoring, as a single healthcare professional can monitor the vitals of six to eight patients. In my observation, the price of Patient monitors, Dialysis machines, ECG machines, Ultrasound machines, and the Echo machine is unreasonably high. Shouldn’t we strive to develop medical facilities that are innovative, affordable, and adept at providing quality care to our teeming millions, or should we wait, for the next pandemic to strike to wake us up from our slumber?

The healthcare infrastructure in our country is inadequate. India faces capacity constraints in terms of hospital beds and qualified healthcare professionals. Recent experiences have shown that the problem of hospital capacity can be overcome if the intentions are right. Delhi government ramped up its capacity in a couple of weeks and is ready to face a situation where 1000 new COVID-19 cases are detected per day. Indian Railways (IR) has also come forward in support and has dedicated more than 6,500 hospital beds, which is half the number of beds from its 125 railway hospitals, dedicated to COVID-19 infected patients across the country. Out of these, one-third of the beds numbering up to 2000 will be fitted with ventilators. IR continuing with its support has decided, to convert as many as 20,000 old train carriages into isolation wards for patients if the cases multiply.

Another realization that has occurred, is the potential of Telemedicine in delivering ambulatory care. In ninety percent of the cases, a doctor is not even required to remain in direct contact with the patient. A registered medical practitioner (RMP) can run OPD without physically being present at the location. The vitals of the patients can be recorded by trained paramedical professionals. During the COVID-19 outbreak, the health ministry issued the guidelines for using telemedicine in a hurry. If implemented properly, telemedicine can solve the perennial problems of availability and affordability in the medical field. Using telemedicine, quality care can be provided in remote parts of the country as well. This will result in less travel to cities and hence will, decrease the cost of care.

This crisis has taught us many lessons. The healthcare system in India can be revamped and healthcare can be made more inclusive, provided we work in the right direction. No one has ever doubted the capability of India if only the right intent is cultivated. Needless to say, COVID-19 has been a blessing in disguise and it will bring a paradigm shift in the way healthcare service is delivered in India and many parts of the world.

(The author is Assistant Professor at FORE School of Management, New Delhi, India.)   

Generic Drugs Can Reduce the Economic Burden of Diabetes!

Diabetes is rising like an epidemic in India. According to Diabetes Atlas 2017 published by International Federation of Diabetes, 72.9 million people are living with diabetes in the country. This number is expected to become 134.3 million by years 2045. Moreover, 42.2 millions of Indians are living with un-diagnosed diabetes, which constitutes 57.9% of the total population living with diabetes. The number of patients living with diabetes is bound to increase in the near future due to ongoing large-scale urbanization and increasing life expectancy.

Diabetes is a physiological state in which there is a persistently higher level of glucose in the blood. This situation may adversely affect the organs like eye, heart, kidney, and skin to name a few. According to reports, a person living with diabetes has two times higher chance of getting a heart attack, which is a major cause of mortality in the case of diabetes. With the progression of diabetes, we witness the comorbidity and hence increase in the cost of diabetes management.

The economic burden of diabetes has two components namely direct cost and indirect cost. The direct cost includes consultation fee, medicine cost, and hospitalization cost. The indirect cost includes the cost of travel and the cost of lodging, as patients have to travel from remote areas to urban areas, to avail the healthcare facilities. Another indirect cost associated with diabetes is a loss of productivity due to illness.

Need not to say, the burden of diabetes on total health care spending is likely to increase in the coming future. This situation will have important consequences on the sustainability of health care financing. To make the condition even worse eighty percent of healthcare spending in India is out-of-pocket (OOP). Any major health event in the family can make a family poor. Due to its chronic nature and existence of comorbidities medicines constitutes a major portion of the direct cost in case of diabetes. Financing and delivery of health care in India has been left largely to the private sector, hence the government has little control over the cost of medicine prescribed.

One approach to bring the medicine cost in chronic care like diabetes down is the prescription of generic drugs. Generic drugs are bioequivalence of brand-name drugs that have exactly the same dosage, intended use, effects, side effects, route of administration, risks, safety, and strength as the original drug. The pharmacological effects of branded drugs are exactly the same as those of their generic counterparts but are being sold at an exorbitantly higher price compared to generic drugs.

The major challenge in the adoption of generic drugs is distrust from both patients and doctors towards its effectiveness and quality. In addition to this, the prescription of generic drugs hurts the profitability of the healthcare providers as well as pharmaceutical companies. Indian healthcare is dominated by private hospitals, which constitutes more than 75% of the total healthcare being provided. The combination of generics as a percentage of original drugs may work well for all parties. The policymakers need to come up with an incentive strategy for generic drug prescription. The provision of financial incentive to doctors can further strengthen the development of generics market. In countries like France, bonuses are awarded to doctors who have high prescription rates of generics. Ministry of health should launch awareness campaigns targeting the general public about generics safety and bio-equivalence. According to Kobayashi et al (2011), Japan’s health ministry has issued a handbook with the authorized medicinal products and their therapeutic equivalence evaluations in order to inform both patients and healthcare professionals for the generics. India can emulate the same for better acceptability of the generics.

According to the Indian Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF), India is the largest provider of generic drugs globally. Indian pharmaceutical sector industry supplies over 50 percent of global demand for various vaccines, 40 percent of generic demand in the US and 25 percent of all medicine in the UK. The confidence of patients and doctors in generics can be increased by ensuring the quality of the processes at pharmaceutical companies producing these drugs. These companies should use ISO-quality management system certifications and follow rules of good manufacturing practices (GMP).

As already discussed, the comorbidity increases with the progression of diabetes. This situation results in the inclusion of more advanced drugs in the prescription. In most of the cases, drugs prescribed at this stage are new in the market and their generic equivalent is not readily available or popular for that matter. Moreover, with medical intervention, the average life of the people living with diabetes has increased. This means the economic burden of diabetes drugs has significantly increased and bound to even increase in the future. The increased inclusion of generic medicines in the prescription can significantly bring the cost of care down in case chronic disease like diabetes. The government needs to act swiftly to address the rising burden of diabetes drugs by promoting the prescription of a generic drug in India.

(The author is Assistant Professor (Operations Management) at FORE School of Management,

New Delhi)

The Article originally publish in ETHealthworld: 

https://health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/generic-drugs-can-reduce-the-economic-burden-of-diabetes-dr-vinaytosh-mishra/69439891

Digital & Marketing Nirvana

Kotler defines marketing as a mean to identify human and social needs and fulfill them, profitably.

According to American Marketing Association, Marketing is the activity, set of institutions, and processes for creating, communicating, delivering, and exchanging offerings that have value for customers, clients, partners, and society at large.

Nirvana is made of two words Nir and Vana. Where Nir means without and Vana means Forests. The Nirvana is to be in a state which has got rid of, forever, the dense forest of the three fires of nonvaluable creation, communication and delivery.

The term marketing is one of the most abused terms of modern era. Marketing started as noble profession being seen as antisocial and father of consumerism and eventually root cause of many societal, psychological and environmental problem.         

                                      

Digital medium have contributed in big data revolution. The data analysis can help in creating customized solution so that communication expenses minimized. The digital mediums also have been instrumental in bringing the delivery and transaction cost down. The advent of 3-D scanning and 3-D printing has opened the door for plethora of opportunities. 

Thus digital marketing is instrumental in helping marketing achieve its true aim, creating a product so that consumer himself come and purchase it. Thus maximum value is being unlocked in the supply chain.

                                                                                          

Why Regularization is needed in Regression?

Hello Data Ninja’s!

This introductory blog post is all about need of regularization in Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. I have tried covering the concept using simple text only. In coming posts, I will try to use equations and visuals for better comprehension.  

The Linear Regression is a process of fitting the curve/line so that the sum of square of difference between estimated value and actual value is minimized (minimization of squared residual).The method is also called the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method.

 But, the Ordinary Least Square method is not sufficient whenever low ratio of observations to number variable exist in Regression Modelling. The prediction accuracy gets compromised in case of higher number of variable and low data points.  The methods like Ridge Regression and Lasso provide probable solution for the problem.

  

Ridge regression generally yields better predictions than OLS solution, through a better compromise between bias and variance. Its main drawback is that all predictors are kept in the model, so it is not very interesting if you seek a parsimonious model or want to apply some kind of feature selection.

To achieve sparsity, the lasso is more appropriate but it will not necessarily yield good results in presence of high collinearity (it has been observed that if predictors are highly correlated, the prediction performance of the lasso is dominated by ridge regression).

I expect the attempt of blog post to introduce the shortcoming of OLS and need of Regularization in regression model was successful through this blog post. If yes keep visiting this blog to get more incite on Data Analytics & Digital Marketing. You can also subscribe for blog posts using subscription options available in right sidebar.

Four red flags for mobile app development outsourcing

Outsourcing has become the need of the hour. Outsourcing mobile app development is an attractive option, but there are few red flags any organization needs to watch for.

Although some mobile apps are conceived by the person who then does the coding, our experience is this is usually not the case and that most app entrepreneurs will find someone else to do their app development.  Even those with the ability (or personnel) to code will often times outsource app development, for a variety of reasons. In this blog post we will list four flags an outsourcing organisation always needs to watch for.

Flag no 1:

Discounts: If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.  Be wary of outsourcer whose bids are conspicuously lower than their competitors; chances are they’re either trying to buy your business or simply don’t understand the scope of your product. There is an old saying “as you sow so reap”.

Flag no 2:

Settle on a Fixed Price: The profit-sharing option can seem tempting if you’re short on capital, but there are often pitfalls in such arrangements.  The conditions of the agreement might be vague; the goals of the project might not be shared by both sides, etc.

Flag No 3:

Beware of Yes Men: If your outsourcer agrees too quickly to your proposals, tread lightly.  Raising questions and objections is the sign of a developer who’s committed to your project and who cares enough about it to make sure you’re getting what you’re asking for.

Flag No 4:

Expect Punctuality: If your outsourced developer does n’t respect your time commitments when it comes to making a bid, how likely is it they’ll do so when it comes time to deliver the project?

In short, outsourcing a mobile app development project is an attractive option for entrepreneurs who don’t have enough time and money for in house development but they need to select their vendor carefully otherwise this decision may misfire.

To PPC or not to PPC :That is the Question?

A startup should always use PPC campaigns for the first six months of their product launch but approach always depends on their pocket.

The new website always faces a big hurdle of Google Sandbox and struggles to get more leads through organic SEO. If you are not using right mix of inorganic and organic search engine marketing then you are losing on time and there is opportunity cost associated with that.

Big players generally have deep pocket and they allot the budget to different methods being used but startups have limited resources available. Following are thumb rule for a startup PPC campaign:

·         Avoid head on collision with these players

·         Target long tail keywords which are closely matched to line of business (Quality Score and completion will be less hence the cost per click)

·         Create specific landing pages for campaign ( you can provide more CTA ,website Bounce Rate will also not increase)

You are not facing challenge of consuming/utilizing the allotted budget .The available budget will any how exhaust hence try to maximize the number of visit on your website.

Is your and your organization’s identity safe in the cloud?

By Vinaytosh Mishra

Click here for original blogpost link at SmartSignin Blog 

Naysayers are always drawing attention to the lack of security in cloud-based services. Nevertheless, the inherent advantages of cloud services have experts estimating activity in the cloud will explode by the end of 2012 and will continue to expand rapidly for several years. Cloud services (or SaaS)free both businesses and consumers from having to calculate the Return-on-Investment (ROI) for adopting new technology. Cloud adoption means you likely won’tneed to invest in hardware or configure complex software across the enterprise servers.Cloud services are a subscription… an Operating Expense Forget about long mind-numbing budget analysis crossing the next 3-5 years and contracts to negotiate with vendors.  Many SaaS and cloud providers don’t require a contract.  If a solution doesn’t work out after a trial period, don’t sweat it. You can try another one.In many cases there’s no need to hire and retain expensive and hard to find DBAs or other subject matter experts.Finally, since the IT maintenance &overhead is much less in the cloud, your organization’s content owners have more choice to pick the solution they want.

For mobile workers especially, cloud computing provides incredible flexibility and productivity: professionals can work from any computing device anywhere as long as they have access to the Internet. Collaboration becomes easier.For example, distributed teams (i.e., a combination of mobile workers and in-office staff) can work on shared information stored centrally in the cloud via online groupware applications.

But with all these opportunities there comes a threat. Is your and your organization’s identity safe in the cloud?

Gartner reports validate this threat. According to them, worldwide spending on security is expected to touch the $60 billion mark in 2012, up 8.4 percent from $55 billion in the previous year, and this figure will approach $86 billion in 2016 

Figure: Growth in Security Spending

According to the research done the demand for cloud-based security is affecting a number of key security markets, and that this new delivery model will see above-average growth.

Figure: Decision Makers on Security Spending

Small organizationsin particular are driven to adopt cloud-based solutions these days due to the dramatic cost savings and competitive economy. However, theresult is password fatigue. In this scenario, Single Sign-On (SSO) has been a boon for users.SSO makes life easier because you no longer have to remember all those passwords. But, how secure is your SSO solution?

Facebook Connect and other “federated” SSO is not really all that secure. And, now we learn also that Facebook is tracking our account usage even when we are not logged-in to Facebook. A more secure SSO solution should be used with your more important apps and accounts. SmartSignin is a very secure Single Sign-On and Identity and Access Management solution. SmartSignin provides an easy-to-use interface that allows you to perform one-click sign-ins from a single secure portal.  The encryption and decryption is performed on your device.  As a result, the usernames and passwords to your sensitive and private data are not stored anywhere that they can be stolen.

Think about it. You stand to lose a great deal if your online identity is compromised on the Internet. Don’t allow someone to sweep in and use your identity in malicious ways. Choose a solution that will allow you to have several layers of fortification in front of you.

For more details check: www.SmartSignin.com

How to tweet effectively and efficiently?

Your tweets can be divided in three major and equal parts. One third of the time you should tweet about you and/or your brand. One third of the posts should be about your areas of interest and expertise, but using material from an outside source: The last one third of the time on twitter is for being yourself: Interact, ask questions, answer questions, re-tweet or re-post interesting things people in your network have shared.

Once you have mastered “what to tweet” next step is finding out “how to tweet”. If “what to tweet" is being effective the later part of this post will make your twitter marketing efficient.

How to use those 140 characters most efficiently?

• Don't Multi-ReTweet: you need not to give credit to every person who have re-tweeted the original post.
• Drop Vowels: make attention as atntn
• Contractions:  "It is" becomes "it's" and "can not" becomes "can't."
• No More "And"s: "And" become "+".
• Use Other Characters:  use "#" for "number" and "%" for "percent".
• Drop Pronouns: One of the easiest to lose is "that." So "the movie that I luv" becomes "the movie I luv".
• Turn Words into Numbers: "To" becomes "2" and "One" becomes "1".
• Shorten Links: visit the URL shortenersite and then use bit.ly or another service to resqueeze the URL.

Please share your input at comment thread .You can follow me @vinaytosh.

Use Twitter to get more traffic for your blog

Follow me at: www.facebook.com/vinaytosh ,Twitter Handle: @vinaytosh 

Twitter is an important medium of a personal as well as business brand building. It provides you an option to write teasers in 140 characters but you can propagate your blogs and articles using Twitter. In this article I will share five step strategies for getting traffic for your blog through twitter marketing.

Step 1: Create a bespoke Twitter theme for your Twitter profile that matches the branding of your website.  This is of course optional, but it’s worth remembering how important it is to be consistent with your branding.  Also take the time to make full use of the bio information – this is often where people try and find like-minded other people so rather than write full sentences use hash tags and keywords.

Step 2: Register your Twitter account details to the following Twitter directories:

1.     http://wefollow.com  

2.     http://listorious.com/

3.     http://twittercounter.com/ 

4.     http://twitterholic.com/

5.     http://justtweetit.com/

6.     http://twellow.com/

7.     http://twibs.com/

8.     http://www.ibegin.com/twitter/

9.     http://twittervision.com/

10.   http://www.TweetFind.com 

11.   http://www.tweetfind.com/ 

12.   http://connect.me/

13.   http://legalbirds.justia.com/

14.   http://www.localtweeps.com/

Step 3: Create a blog/article that you can direct people to adding value. You want people to recommend the article by re-tweeting it so it it’s important it offers immense value and attracts a lot of interest.  I can’t emphasis this enough – social media traffic is about providing value and the more value you give through your blog the better results you will get – this is how your content can really go viral too.

Step 4: Shorten your blog post URL using Stumble Upon’s shortner – http://su.pr.This powerful tool is very different from other URL shorteners because the sharing and likes that you get from other networks such as Facebook and Twitter helps your post rankings and exposure within Stumbleupon which has over 10 million members. To get the maximum benefit ensure you take the time to enter the correct key words/tags and description.

Step 5: Increase your Twitter followers by:

1.       Post your twitter link on signatures in forums, emails, your business card etc.
2.      Leverage your other social networks to gain followers, for example, promote on your  Facebook Fan Pages your twitter account and vice versa
3.    .  Post your twitter link on your blog, website, offline marketing material, social networks
4.       Find people in your niche and follow them
5.      Try to get on as many lists as possible
6.       Approach people who are in your targeted area and who have a large amount of followers and ask them to retweet your tweets (try to build a rapport with them before you bluntly just ask them)
7.       Introduce yourself to likeminded people
8.       Create competitions/contests
9.       Engage with your existing followers, start conversations, re-tweet others, they will then recommend you to their followers and re-tweet your tweets