Monday, May 25, 2020

What do these COVID-19 trends mean?

~Vinaytosh Mishra 
The graph is increasing exponentially and still remains concave. It has not reached the point of inflection and a peak is a distant dream. Should we heave a sigh of relief or remain in despair?
There may be one of these scenarios:
Scenario1 : The proportion of the tested +ve (PTP) has decreased while the number of testing has increased .
Scenario 2: The proportion of the tested +ve(PTP) has remained same while the number of testing has increased.
Scenario 3: The proportion of tested +ve (PTP)has increased and the number of testing has also increased.
The tests are only being done on the basis of factors such as risk exposure and contact tracing. The increased testing implies that we may test more lavishly and may expect lower proportion of positive cases..Thus, a pessimist may believe that the PTP has not decreased and scenario 1 may not hold true. . Some will claim that increased temperature has affected the virus and Scenario 1 is true.
Whatever may be your assumed scenario, one thing is certain,, the number of testing has certainly increased.However, lets not feel intimidated ! Taking Precautions and adopting safety measures is the need of the hour.

The Author is working as Assistant Professor at FORE School of Management , New Delhi. His research interest includes Service Operations, Healthcare Management ,Health Policy , and Digital Health.


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